Professional judgment is required whenever conditions are uncertain. This article provides an analysis of professional judgment and describes sources of error in decision making.
Barnett, D. W. (1988). Professional judgment: A critical appraisal. School Psychology Review., 17(4), 658-672.
Judgements are influenced by multiple factors. This paper explores how information about outcomes influences judgments.
Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human perception and performance, 1(3), 288-299.
Conventional wisdom holds that heuristics and biases lead to flawded decision making. This paper makes the case that under some conditions they actually make decision-making more efficient.
Gigerenzer, G., & Brighton, H. (2009). Homo heuristicus: Why biased minds make better inferences. Topics in Cognitive Science, 1, 107-143. doi:10.1111/j.1756-8765.2008.01006.