In tracking the educational progress of a sample of Baltimore school- children from entrance into first grade in fall 1982 through early spring 1996, the authors examined the children's personal qualities, first-grade experiences, and family circumstances as precursors to high school dropout.
Alexander, K. L., Entwisle, D. R., & Horsey, C. S. (1997). From first grade forward: Early foundations of high school dropout. Sociology of education, 87-107.
The first year of high school is a critical transition period for students. Those who succeed in
their first year are more likely to continue to do well in the following years and eventually
Allensworth, E. M., & Easton, J. Q. (2005). The on-track indicator as a predictor of high school graduation. Chicago, IL: Consortium on Chicago School Research, University of Chicago.
Research on dropping out has shown that the decision to persist in or leave school is affected by multiple contextual factors interacting in a cumulative way over the life course of a student. Often overlooked in this discussion is one most directly related to graduation: student course performance. This report looks at student performance in freshman coursework, how it is related to eventual graduation and how personal and school factors contribute to success of failure in freshman-year courses
Allensworth, E. M., & Easton, J. Q. (2007). What Matters for Staying On-Track and Graduating in Chicago Public Highs Schools: A Close Look at Course Grades, Failures, and Attendance in the Freshman Year. Research Report. Consortium on Chicago School Research.
This study identified four predictative indicators of student performance in 6th grade predicts 60% of the students who will not graduate from high school.
Balfanz, R Preventing student disengagement and keeping students on the graduation path in urban middle-grades schools: Early identification and effective interventions This study identified four predictative indicators of student performance in 6th grade predicts 60% of the students who will not graduate from high school. 1045 Early indicators 897 897 897 51208
This brief, drawing on our research and field work, illuminates key policy and practice implications of the middle grades playing a stronger role in achieving our national goal of graduating all students from high school prepared for college or career and civic life.
Balfanz, R., & Herzog, L. (2005). Keeping middle grades students on-track to graduation: Initial analysis and implications. Presentation at the second Regional Middle Grades Symposium, Philadelphia.
This study examined students who were first time 9th graders in the 2000-01 school year and follows them through to high school and post-secondary outcomes. The 9th grade suspension data finds that black students, students who are economically disadvantaged, and special education students are disproportionately suspended, both in the frequency of suspensions and the duration of days lost. Disciplinary incidents were found to be interrelated with other of indicators of student disengagement from school, such as course failures and absenteeism
Balfanz, R., Byrnes, V., & Fox, J. H. (2015). Sent home and Put off track. Closing the school discipline gap: Equitable remedies for excessive exclusion, 17-30.
This study developed a multi-metod approach to identifying students in middle school that would have academic difficulty in high school.
Casillas, A., Robbins, S., Allen, J., Kuo, Y.-L., Hanson, M. A., & Schmeiser, C. (2012). Predicting early academic failure in high school from prior academic achievement, psychosocial characteristics, and behavior. Journal of Educational Psychology, 104(2), 407-420. Retrieved from http://uic.edu.hk/~ylkuo/Kuo JEP 2012.pdf
This report provides a practical “management guide,” for an evidence-based key indicator data decision system for school districts and schools.
Celio, M. B., & Harvey, J. (2005). Buried Treasure: Developing A Management Guide From Mountains of School Data. Center on Reinventing Public Education.
The author makes the argument that curriculum based measurement meets the psychometric requirements of being reliaable and valid as well as providing useful information to teachers.
Deno, S. L. (1985). Curriculum-based Measurement: The Emerging Alternative. Exceptional Children, 52(3). Retrieved from http://ecx.sagepub.com/content/52/3/219.abstract
A recent study, attempts to answer this question by examining the effects of two North Carolina early-childhood programs on students’ educational outcomes in elementary school. These findings indicate that North Carolina’s investment in early childhood programs is associated with improved educational outcomes. Importantly, these effects don’t appear to fade during the elementary grades
Dodge, K. A., Bai, Y., Ladd, H. F., & Muschkin, C. G. (2016). Impact of North Carolina's Early Childhood Programs and Policies on Educational Outcomes in Elementary School. Child Development.
This study examines seven nationally representative studies on school dropout and their findings on why students dropout of school.
Doll, J. J., Eslami, Z., & Walters, L. (2013). Understanding why students drop out of high school, according to their own reports: Are they pushed or pulled, or do they fall out? A comparative analysis of seven nationally representative studies. Sage Open, 3(4), 2158244013503834.
This study evaluated the reliability and validity of DIBELS-M as a meaure to predict students at risk for reading failure.
Elliott, J., Lee, S. W., & Tollefson, N. (2001). A reliability and validity study of the Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills--Modified. School Psychology Review. Retrieved from http://www.academia.edu/download/30687244/elliott2001.pdf
Studies of the persistence of social stratification rely heavily on students’ experience in secondary schools. In this study, outcomes for a randomly selected panel of Baltimore children, followed from age 6 to age 22, demonstrate that first graders’ social contexts and personal resources explain educational attainment levels in early adulthood about as well as do similar resources measured in adolescence.
Entwisle, D. R., Alexander, K. L., & Olson, L. S. (2005). First grade and educational attainment by age 22: a new story 1. American Journal of Sociology, 110(5), 1458-1502.
This report reviews the technical adequacy of measures of math performance for the purposes of identifying at risk learners.
Foegen, A., Jiban, C., & Deno, S. (2007). Progress monitoring measures in mathematics: A review of the literature. Journal of Special Education, 41(2), p121-139. Retrieved from http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ775117.pdf
This study examined individual growth curves were used to test whether the development of children with reading disabilities is best characterized by models of developmental lag or developmental deficit.
Francis, D. J., Shaywitz, S. E., Stuebing, K. K., Shaywitz, B. A., & Fletcher, J. M. (1996). Developmental lag versus deficit models of reading disability: A longitudinal, individual growth curves analysis. Journal of Educational psychology, 88(1), 3.
This paper reviews several measures that serve as early identification measures for students at risk for math difficulties.
Gersten, R., Jordan, N. C., & Flojo, J. R. (2005). Early identification and interventions for students with mathematics difficulties. Journal of Learning Disabilities, 38(4). Retrieved from http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/00222194050380040301
Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills is a measure of reading skills. This paper reviews the psychometric properties of the various measures included in DIBELS.
Goffreda, C. T., & DiPerna, J. C. (2010). An empirical review of psychometric evidence for the Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills. School Psychology Review. Retrieved from http://rachaelrobinsonedsi.wiki.westga.edu/file/view/an+empirical+review+of+basic+early+literacy+skills.pdf/238268899/an empirical review of basic early literacy skills.pdf
This paper reviews the use of DIBELS and curriculum-based measurement as methods for the early identification of students at risk for reading difficulties.
Good, R. H., III, Kaminski, R. A., Simmons, D., & Kame’enui, E. J. (2001). Using Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills (DIBELS) in an Outcomes-Driven Model: Steps to Reading Outcomes. OSSC Bulletin. Retrieved from http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED453526.pdf
This work establishes a scientifically substantiated link between children's early family experience and their later intellectual growth—a link that exists regardless of a child's race.
Hart, B., & Risley, T. R. (1995). Meaningful differences in the everyday experience of young American children. Paul H Brookes Publishing.
2 1/2 years of observing 42 families for an hour each month to learn about what typically went on in homes with 1- and 2-year-old children learning to talk. The data from this study showed that ordinary families differ immensely in the amount of experience with language and interaction they regularly provide their children and that differences in children’s experience are strongly linked to children’s language accomplishments at age 3. The goal of this longitudinal study was to discover what was happening in children’s early experience that could account for the intractable difference in rates of vocabulary growth we saw among 4-year-olds.
Hart, B., & Risley, T. R. (2003). The early catastrophe: The 30 million word gap by age 3. American educator, 27(1), 4-9.
This study used Dynamic Inicators of Early Basic Literacy Skills and the Systematic Screening for Behavior Disorders to identify students at risk for reading or behavioral difficulties. These students were followed through 4th grade to see how well they responded to three different reading instruction. practices.
Kamps, D. M., Wills, H. P., Greenwood, C. R., Thorne, S., Lazo, J. F., Crockett, J. L., . . . Swaggart, B. L. (2003). Curriculum Influences on Growth in Early Reading Fluency for Students with Academic and Behavioral Risks. Journal of Emotional and Behavioral Disorders, 11(4), 211-224. doi:10.1177/10634266030110040301
This paper reviews measures of student performance that serve as early indicators of student academic difficulty.
Kennedy, M. M. (1999). Approximations to indicators of student outcomes. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis. Retrieved from http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.3102/01623737021004345
This report, produced by the National High School Center at the American Institutes for Research, outlines steps that schools can take to identify at-risk students and provide the necessary support systems and relevant interventions to assist students in obtaining a high school diploma.
Kennelly, L., & Monrad, M. (2007). Approaches to Dropout Prevention: Heeding Early Warning Signs with Appropriate Interventions. American Institutes for Research.
This paper reviews school engagement as a predictor of later academic difficulty.
Ladd, G. W., & Dinella, L. M. (2009). Continuity and change in early school engagement: Predictive of children’s achievement trajectories from first to eighth grade. Journal of Educational Psychology. Retrieved from http://psycnet.apa.org/psycinfo/2009-01936-007
Students who are at risk of dropping out of school can be identified retrospectively as early as third grade on the basis of attendance patterns, academic performance, and behavior. Check & Connect is a model designed to promote student engagement, support regular attendance, and improve the likelihood of school completion.
Lehr, C. A., Sinclair, M. F., & Christenson, S. L. (2004). Addressing student engagement and truancy prevention during the elementary school years: A replication study of the check & connect model. Journal of education for students placed at risk, 9(3), 279-301.
This study demonstrates, for the first time, that providing all 20% of the nation’s three- and four-year-old children who live in poverty with a high-quality ECD program would have a substantial payoff for governments and taxpayers in the future.
Lynch, R. G. (2004). Exceptional Returns: Economic, Fiscal, and Social Beneﬁts of Investment in Early Childhood Development. Washington, DC: Economic Policy Institute.
The study investigates the correlation and predictive value of curriculum-based measurement (CBM) against the Michigan Educational Assessment Program's (MEAP) fourth grade reading assessment.
McGlinchey, M. T., & Hixson, M. D. (2004). Using curriculum-based measurement to predict performance on state assessments in reading. School Psychology Review, 33, 193-203.
This report addresses three central sets of questions: (1) How many students in grades 6 through 12 drop out of Philadelphia's public schools in a single year? What are the key characteristics of these students, including their age, grade, race/ethnicity, gender, type of school attended, and neighborhood of residence?; (2) What percentage of 9th graders graduates within four years, five years, or six years of starting high school? What has been the trend in these cohort graduation rates over the past 5 years? What are the trends in cohort graduation rates for males and females and for students of different racial/ethnic backgrounds?; and (3) Which student characteristics, knowable or potentially knowable by school personnel and agency staff, can identify students as being at high risk of dropping out of high school?
Neild, R. C., & Balfanz, R. (2006). Unfulfilled Promise: The Dimensions and Characteristics of Philadelphia's Dropout Crisis, 2000-2005. Philadelphia Youth Network.
This study evaulated curriculum-based measures of oral reading as early predicors of overall reading achievement.
Reschly, A. L., Busch, T. W., Betts, J., Deno, S. L., & Long, J. D. (2009). Curriculum-Based Measurement Oral Reading as an indicator of reading achievement: A meta-analysis of the correlational evidence. Journal of School Psychology, 47(6), 427-469. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsp.2009.07.001
In this research-based book, Roderick examines two critical factors impacting graduation or dropping out. They are school transition to middle school and from there to high school and, secondly, grade retention.
Roderick, M. R. (1993). The path to dropping out: Evidence for intervention. Auburn House.
This article reviews the efficacy of curriculum-based measurement as a methodology for enhancing student achievement in reading and math. Variables that contribute to the benefit of curriculum-based measurement are discussed.
Stecker, P. M., Fuchs, L. S., & Fuchs, D. (2005). Using Curriculum-Based Measurement to Improve Student Achievement: Review of Research. Psychology in the Schools, 42(8), 795-819.
This white paper describes a multi-tiered set of interventions pitched at the population, community, and individual levels. This multi-tiered initiative would employ interventions at multiple touchpoints to ensure a broad reach across diverse communities and to offer strategies that are tailored to a child’s development stage.
Suskind, D., Kuhl, P., Leffel, K. R., Landry, S., Cunha, F., & Neckerman, K. M. (2013, September). Bridging the early language gap: a plan for scaling up. In A white paper prepared for the White House meeting on bridging the thirty-million-word gap. Retrieved from http://stagingharris. uchicago. edu/sites/default/files/White% 20Paper% 20Suskind_Leffel_Landry_Cunha (Vol. 209, No. 2030, p. 2020131).